How To Steal Trillions: A Game Plan

Here’s the  step-by-step game plan the Wall Street Bankers followed to steal money, homes and hope from the American middle class.

  1. 2B2F Banks assures Local Banks they will purchase any and every mortgage they can originate
  2. Local Banks make loans to people who clearly cannot pay
  3. Local Banks sell all mortgages to 2B2F Banks, make easy money on fees and take zero risk
  4. 2B2F Banks package all those loans up into pools (Mortgage Backed Securities) for sale to Pension Funds and commercial investors
  5. 2B2F Banks pay Rating Companies, (Fitch, S&P, Moody’s), to rate these MBS as AAA – in other words – every bit as secure as US Treasury Bonds
  6. Rating Companies intentionally avoid performing due diligence on MBS packages so that they can rate them AAA and thus get paid by the 2B2F Banks
  7. 2B2F Banks sell MBS  to Pension Funds which – by charter – can only buy AAA-rated debt
  8. 2B2F Banks buy CDS’s on MBSs from Insurance Companies (AIG).
  9. When mortgages in MBS became overdue, 2B2F Banks ran to Uncle Sam, threatened the end of the world, and got Congress to buy the mortgages using taxpayer money
  10. 2B2F Banks foreclose on homes they don’t own. They don’t own the homes because they destroyed the original documents because those documents would prove the loans were fraudulent, the MBS were fraudulent and the CDS’s were essentially a guaranteed sure-fire bet.

My question for you, dear readers, is this: Now that you know that Banks intentionally, willfully and deliberately set about defrauding you, and now that you know that the Federal Goverment was their willing accomplices, what are YOU going to do about it? Are you gonna bend over and take it, or are you going to resist?

As for me, my strategy is to starve them out.

KEY:

2B2F = Too Big To Fail – these are the banks, insurance companies and car companies that the government decided were too big to fail and thus “deserved” to be have their debts paid by the American middle class. Note that the bankers who are employed by these banks have taken somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 billion in bonuses since they got their bailout money. These include, but are not limited to: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan-Chase, Morgan-Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citibank, GMAC Finance, GE Financial, Deutsche Bank, UBS, RBS, etcetera, etcetera.

MBS = Mortgage Backed Security – A commercial bond that is backed by a pool of mortgages. Compare this to a municipal bond that is backed by the citizens of a city, or a treasury bond that is backed by the government.

CDS = Credit Default Swap – An insurance policy on a financial instrument, in this case, Mortgage Backed Securities. If the MBS fails, then the holder of the CDS is paid off.

The reason AIG was considered 2B2F is because they had sold trillions of dollars worth of CDS’s to the 2B2Fs. When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, they were obligated to pay the holders of CDS’s written against Lehman Brothers. Note that the 2B2Fs knew that the mortgages in the MBS were junk. They made money when they sold the MBS to the pension funds, they made money on the mortgages, they made money when the mortgages in the MBS went bad because of the CDS’s they bought, they got money for free from the government because they were 2B2F, they made money by foreclosing properties they did not own and then selling them, and they will likely make more money in other devious ways which are not yet public.

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Trading in a Rigged Market

I never doubted that there was manipulation going on in the markets, but I honestly thought it was mostly confined to low-liquidity markets like penny stocks and low volume markets like gold & silver. The Flash Crash of May 6 proved me wrong. The crash and bounce occurred across all sorts of instruments – high volume, low volume, high liquidity, low liquidity, stocks, futures, forex – nothing was immune.

The combination of high-frequency trading, co-located servers, illegal front-running, Federal Reserve money, volume rebates, sub-pennying and moral hazard has turned what used to be a legitimate market into a rigged casino. Frankly, I think my odds in Las Vegas might be better. In Vegas, at least the house is upfront about how the game is tilted in their favor.

With that said, here are my thoughts about how to succeed as a trader in a rigged game:

1. Do not pay any attention to fundamentals. Fundamentals mean nothing in this market. John Paulson was widely praised for making a billion dollars shorting the housing market. His fundamental analysis was spot-on. But we now know that he made a lot of that money because he bought credit default swaps on bonds that he helped Goldman Sachs put together – bonds literally designed to fail. Even with accurate fundamental analysis, he essentially worked with GS to rig the game. The only qualifier I would give to this recommendation is that certain overwhelming trends cannot be manipulated away by the banks and the government. All the new money that the Fed and ECB have pumped into the banks will eventually show up in the economy, and you can be certain that we will eventually have severe inflation. The problem is – as Lord Keynes is reputed to have said – the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent. The Too-Big-To-Fails – banks, insurance companies, car companies – will be bailed out someway, somehow. Even though they are fundamentally insolvent and their stock isn’t worth the paper it is printed on – they will NOT go to zero. Fundamentals mean nothing.

2. Trade on technical patterns only, but don’t trade them blindly. Most technical patterns are well-known and heavily traded: head & shoulders, double tops, double bottoms, moving average cross-overs. Part of high-frequency trading is technical trading, and those computers can read and react faster than you can. Some of the more well-known patterns have quit working. I’ve only been trading for three years, and in that time, I have discerned at least three different markets, markets that behaved unlike other markets. I started trading the ES in January 2008. From that point till March 2009, the market behaved as I expected it to. From March 2009 till around February this year, the character of the market completely changed, and the indicators I had been using and relying on quit working and others started working. Around February this year, the character of the market changed yet again, and again the patterns I was trusting quit working and others started working.  The moral of the story is this: in a technical market, you have to trade on technicals – but always beware that the very nature of the market can change.

3. If you are a program trader, then you must immediately test and implement your self-protection plan for the next occurrence of Flash Crash. The computer programs that generated the crash are still out there, still cranking, still front-running, still sub-pennying and still not smart enough to understand how to react in every situation. I was a programmer for 10 years, and I know from experience there is no way that developers can anticipate and test for every possibility – especially the kind that happened on May 6. You must be prepared to override your programs and protect yourself. When spreads on the ES are 40 times wider than normal, stops get blown, accounts get blown and lives get blown. Protect yourself.

4. If you hold positions overnight, hedge. Just because the Flash Crash happened during American market hours doesn’t mean it could ONLY happen during American market hours. I know some traders who hedge their positions with options. I know others who hedge their positions with correlated instruments, (like hedging the ES with the DAX). Whatever you do, you must protect yourself. It has been demonstrated again and again that the so-called regulators will not punish the major players, so you must assume that the major players will do everything within their power to manipulate whatever market you are in. Protect yourself.

5. Don’t expect justice. When the mafia ran a protection racket in a neighborhood, it didn’t make business impossible, it just made it more expensive and less just. You must have the attitude of a shop owner in a mafia-controlled neighborhood. You know they are going to shake you down eventually; plan and prepare for it now. If you find it impossible to be a businessman in such a neighborhood, then get out now before something violent and ugly happens to your war chest. But if you are able to accept the fact that the crooks run the neighborhood and the cops won’t do anything to stop them, then you must figure out how to do business with the crooks. The metaphor holds: the mafia needed the shopkeepers to keep doing business, otherwise they would have no one to shake down. Just know that they are going to take an unjust, unfair portion of your profits. Another way to express this thought is: bring your expectations in line with reality.

6. Don’t give up. It is still possible to make money trading in a rigged market. You have to be nimble, you have to trade defensively, you have to be humble. Even though this market is rigged, it still speaks and will still tell you what it is going to do – you just have to learn the language. If you have not already made the decision to be a student of your market, you must now decide to be a student, always be a student of the market you trade. If you are not willing to be a life-long student, then find another profession.

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Precious Metals Manipulators and Assassins

This sounds like the script for the next Jason Bourne movie, but it is real and it is happening right now.

The players:

  • JPMorgan Chase – allegedly some of The Smartest Guys in the Room
  • a London trader named Andrew McGuire – trades precious metals on the commodities markets
  • the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)- The US Government agency responsible for regulating the futures markets
  • the Gold Anti-Trust Action committee (GATA) – a private organization committed to exposing fraud in the Gold Futures markets

Late last fall, Andrew McGuire received first-hand information that JPMorgan Chase actively and intentionally manipulated the price of silver in the futures market. By “first-hand”, I mean that JPM traders bragged to him about what they did and how they did it. Later, McGuire provided the CFTC with specific forecasts as to what was going to happen in the silver markets and when. He was completely accurate, which gave credence to his assertion that the market was manipulated. The CFTC apparently did nothing with the information, since they’ve had it since November. Last week, McGuire contacted GATA director Adrian Douglas with the information. Douglas was scheduled to testify to the CFTC and he used that testimony as an opportunity to expose the scam.

The next day, McGuire and his family were injured when their car was T-boned by a hit-and-run driver in London.

A word to the wise…

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